Every prediction we publish is checked against the real result and kept permanently — hits and misses, nothing hidden.
Across every match that produced a winner, the called outcome landed more than three times in four. That's the number that matters when the game isn't going to end level.
Only 2 of 21 drawn matches were called. Nineteen of our 28 misses were draws. It's the single clearest pattern in the data, and the next thing the model is being tuned to handle. See methodology →
Hit-rate by the confidence the model published before kickoff. The dashed marks show where a perfectly-calibrated model would land — the bars track them closely.
Not just the right result — the exact final score. The model's cleanest reads so far.
Same care as the wins — a record you can't see the bottom of isn't a record. Here are our biggest ones; the rest are one tap away.
A prediction is a hit if it called the result (home, away or draw), and exact if the scoreline matched to the goal. Every figure on this page is calculated automatically from real results and updated as each match finishes. Published predictions are locked at kickoff and never changed. As new competitions come online, each keeps its own permanent record — the World Cup stays exactly where it is.
See the latest predictions