France vs Sweden — Prediction

The deciding factor is a clear squad-quality and form gulf: France swept Group I with nine points, ten goals and only two conceded, and arrive with Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé — whose hat-trick against Norway was a standout of the group stage — both fit and flying. Sweden scraped through as a best third-placed side with a level goal difference, shipping five to the Netherlands and leaning on an Isak–Gyökeres front pair that has gone cold over their last two games. The key matchup is that misfiring Swedish attack against a French back line marshalled by Upamecano that has been one of the tournament's meanest. The honest risk, even in a mismatch, is that Isak and Gyökeres are individually elite enough to punish a single lapse — Sweden scored in all three group games — and France contested the Norway finale with assistant Guy Stéphan deputising after Deschamps stepped away for family reasons, a minor disruption. France should control and advance, but a clean sheet is not a given against that calibre of striker.