Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway — Prediction
Calibrated from squad strength, form, rest and venue. Higher means the model has seen this pattern resolve consistently — never a certainty.
The analysis
This is one of the round's tightest ties — the market splits it almost evenly with Norway a marginal favourite — and a genuine coin flip that could swing in extra time or on penalties. The deciding edge is Norway's higher attacking ceiling: Erling Haaland (four group goals before being rested against France) leads a front line with Martin Ødegaard and Alexander Sørloth that carries more match-winning quality than Côte d'Ivoire's. But the Ivorians are the more cohesive unit, and the key tension is their pace in transition through Amad Diallo, Yan Diomande and Nicolas Pépé against a Norwegian defence that leaked twice to Senegal. The risk cuts both ways and keeps confidence in toss-up territory: Côte d'Ivoire are missing Wilfried Singo and Evan Ndicka at the back, which hurts against Haaland, while Norway's own backline is far from watertight. AT&T Stadium's roof should spare both sides the Texas noon heat, removing one variable. Norway to edge an open game by the odd goal — but this is a lean, not a confident call, and a draw into extra time is firmly in range.
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