Spain vs Cape Verde — Prediction
Calibrated from squad strength, form, rest and venue. Higher means the model has seen this pattern resolve consistently — never a certainty.
The analysis
Spain enter as FIFA #1 ranked side. Even with Lamine Yamal injured and not expected back before the final group game, Pedri, Morata, and a deep squad of elite talent remain. Cape Verde makes their first-ever World Cup appearance. This should be a comfortable, dominant Spanish victory — a chance for La Roja to display their spectacular passing game on the world stage.
Even without Yamal — confirmed not fit to start — Spain's passing volume should pin Cape Verde deep, with Pedri dictating from a position the debutants have no answer for.
Yamal's absence is the only dent in an otherwise overwhelming case; at 95 the model still expects a dominant, multi-goal Spanish win. (Key-man note: matches.ts lists 'Óscar Macedo' for Cape Verde, who is not in the squad — Ryan Mendes is the realistic key man used here.)
Full-time review
The 0-0 was the rare high-confidence miss: Spain did dominate exactly as predicted — 27 shots to six, an xG of 2.29 against 0.30, Ferran Torres rattling the crossbar — but 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha was inspired and the debutants held on for a historic point. The chance creation justified the 95, yet football's margins meant the most lopsided performance of the round produced no goals, and the tip missed.
Predictions are probabilistic model output, not advice. For information only — 18+ / 21+ US. If gambling affects you or someone you know, support is available.