Brazil vs Japan — Prediction

Brazil topped Group C in style — back-to-back 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland with Vinícius Júnior scoring four — and carry the clear individual-quality edge, but their attack is thinner than the badge suggests: Raphinha is out with a thigh injury and Rodrygo never made the squad, so Ancelotti leans on Vinícius, Matheus Cunha and the young Rayan. The deciding factor is whether that front line can break down the tournament's most disciplined unit, because Japan are no ordinary second seed — Moriyasu's 3-4-3 dismantled Germany and Spain in 2022, rallied twice to draw the Netherlands here, and is built to frustrate elite sides. Kubo and Ueda give Japan a real transition threat, and the air-conditioned roof at NRG Stadium removes the Houston heat that might otherwise have slowed the game. The honest risk is significant: if Japan's structure holds, this is the kind of tie that drifts to extra time and penalties, where a single moment decides it. Brazil's ceiling should tell over 90 minutes, but this is a clear favourite with a live upset, not a comfortable passage.