Belgium vs Senegal — Prediction

This is a finely balanced tie and a genuine coin-flip-leaning call. Belgium carry the higher individual ceiling — De Bruyne pulling the strings at No.10, Courtois behind a defense that conceded just twice in the group, and Trossard sharp off a brace against New Zealand — but they were laboured in 1-1 and 0-0 draws before that, and both Lukaku (not yet 90-minute fit) and Doku (a recent breathing/illness issue) are being managed rather than fully unleashed. The deciding matchup is Senegal's pace — Ismaïla Sarr, fresh off a brace against Norway, plus Jackson and Mané — against Belgium's slower centre-back pairing of De Winter and Mechele, the clearest route to a Senegalese upset. Senegal arrive on momentum from a 5-0 demolition of Iraq, but they lost both earlier games to France and Norway, conceding three each time, and may be without injured goalkeeper Édouard Mendy. Belgium's quality and Courtois should just tip a high-event game their way, but with both defenses leaking this is firmly in extra-time/penalties range and a Senegal win is well within reach.