Uruguay vs Spain — Prediction

Spain top the group on four points with a vastly superior squad and need only a draw to seal first place, but they cannot coast: Pedri is suspended after two bookings, forcing De la Fuente to reshape midfield around Dani Olmo, and Bielsa's Uruguay are desperate for the win that keeps them alive. The deciding factor is Spain's attacking class even reshuffled — Lamine Yamal, fit and starring, plus Nico Williams stretching a Uruguay defence missing the injured Ronald Araújo — against a Celeste side that has drawn blankly twice and also lost its chief creator Arrascaeta. Federico Valverde will drive Uruguay forward and Núñez returns up top, so the hosts carry a threat, and the altitude in Guadalajara plus Spain's lack of must-win urgency are real brakes on the favourite. That is why this is a lean rather than a comfortable win: a desperate Uruguay nicking it or a draw that suits Spain are both firmly in range. Spain's quality to settle a competitive game.