Senegal vs Iraq — Prediction
Calibrated from squad strength, form, rest and venue. Higher means the model has seen this pattern resolve consistently — never a certainty.
The analysis
Both teams are out of automatic qualification, but the stakes are not symmetric: Iraq, bottom on a minus-six goal difference, are fully eliminated and playing only for pride, while Senegal can still chase a best-third-placed berth with a commanding win — a live incentive that should keep their intensity high. The deciding factor is a wide quality gap that survives Senegal's injury scare, with Ismaïla Sarr, fresh off a brace against Norway, plus Jackson and Mané all passed fit to start; Graham Arnold's Iraq, by contrast, are sweating on their only tournament scorer with Aymen Hussein doubtful, leaving creator Zidane Iqbal to carry the threat. Édouard Mendy's knee injury forces a reserve keeper on Senegal, a minor caveat, and Iraq will sit deep and frustrate as they did for spells against France. The main risk is Senegal's wasteful finishing across two defeats, which could make this tighter than the gap suggests, but a motivated, far stronger side should win comfortably. Senegal to control it and win to nil.
Full-time review
We tipped Senegal to control it and win to nil, and they went far beyond it — a 5-0 over a Iraq reduced to ten men by Rebin Sulaka's early red card, with Habib Diarra, Ismaïla Sarr, a Pape Gueye brace and Iliman Ndiaye scoring. The home win-to-nil call landed emphatically in the first time an African nation has scored five at a World Cup.
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