Spain vs Belgium — Prediction

Spain's tournament is a study in control: five games, nine goals scored, none conceded, and per Opta the best xG difference by a European side past the group stage since France in 1998. That defensive floor is the deciding factor, because Belgium's twelve regulation goals cluster against the wrong opposition — five past New Zealand, four past a stretched USA — while the two organised defences they met held them to 1-1 and 0-0. Mikel Oyarzabal arrives as Spain's in-form finisher with four goals including two braces, Lamine Yamal is fully recovered and creating, and Pedri and Rodri dictating tempo should tilt territory Spain's way, with only Nico Williams' fitness doubt blunting the width. Belgium's threat is real and their late-game character is proven — they hauled the Senegal tie back from 2-0 down with goals in the 86th and 89th minutes — but their front line is a genuine selection lottery: De Bruyne and Doku both exited that epic early and started the USA rout on the bench, and Lukaku is managing a hamstring. This is a lean, not a formality: Spain's one blank came against a deep block, and Belgium won't park. But Spain at SoFi for the third time this tournament, in a roofed noon kickoff that suits their passing rhythm, should win this on control — most likely to nil, with Belgium's bench-fuelled late surge the scenario that keeps the scoreline honest.