France vs Morocco — Prediction

The 2022 semi-final rematch, and the deciding factor is the collision of an attack with fourteen goals in five games against the defence that allows the fewest chances of any side left: France have won all five with Mbappé on seven goals, while Morocco held the Netherlands to 0.23 xG across 120 minutes and beat Canada 3-0 from just five shots — the fewest by a winning side in a World Cup knockout round since 1966. The pattern to respect is that both of Morocco's knockout games, and France's own last-16 win, were goalless at half-time: Regragui's block concedes nothing early and forces the game long. France's case is that they have already solved this exact puzzle twice this tournament, breaking Paraguay through Mbappé's penalty and easing past Sweden 3-0, and they arrive with no reported absentees while Morocco sweat on Saibari's hamstring and carry five players one booking from a semi-final suspension. The upset path is genuine — Hakimi driving at his club teammates, Ounahi arriving late from midfield, and a side yet to lose a 90 all tournament with a shootout already banked. We back France to break the block after the interval and win a controlled two-goal game; a level 90 heading to extra time is the live alternative, the way Morocco have dragged both their knockout ties deep already.