Canada vs Morocco — Prediction

Morocco carry the clearer squad-quality edge in this last-16 tie, and the deciding factor is the tournament's meanest defence: the 2022 semi-finalists have faced just 8.3 shots and conceded only 0.8 xG per game, rebuilt around Issa Diop after losing the tournament-ended Nayef Aguerd and shielded by shootout hero Yassine Bounou. That organisation is a real problem for a Canada side that turned reactive in the knockouts, dropping to 42% possession while grinding past South Africa on Stephen Eustáquio's 92nd-minute winner. The key matchup is Achraf Hakimi's overlaps and the creativity of Brahim Díaz and the in-form Ismael Saibari — three group goals — against a Canadian block that must sit deep and hit through Jonathan David. Opta frames it honestly: Morocco 51.8% to win in 90, the draw 26.5%, so this is a lean, not a runaway. The upset path is real — David is a clinical finisher, Alphonso Davies may return to add pace, and Morocco keep dragging knockouts long, level with the Netherlands before winning on penalties. Expect a tight, low-event game Morocco edge, with the closed roof at NRG Stadium removing any heat factor and extra time firmly in play.