Brazil vs Norway — Prediction

The deciding factor is a quality and depth edge Brazil carry across the pitch, plus a de facto home tie in front of a huge Brazilian crowd at MetLife — but this is a lean, not a formality, and the market's near-even pricing says so. Norway's back line is the fault line: it leaked to Senegal, was torn apart by France, and in the last 32 was outplayed on xG by Côte d'Ivoire, rescued only by Erling Haaland's ruthless finishing. Vinícius Júnior, Matheus Cunha and Gabriel Martinelli should find room against Ajer and company, though Brazil's attack is genuinely thinner than the badge — Rodrygo, Estêvão and Militão are all out and Raphinha is at best a doubtful returnee. The upset path is obvious: Haaland has scored in every match and Norway top the tournament for xG per shot, so one lapse in front of Marquinhos and Casemiro's screen can be punished, and Norway have famously never lost to Brazil. Expect an open, competitive game Brazil edge — but a 1-1 after 90 that heads to extra time and penalties is very much in range.