Spain vs Argentina — Prediction

Spain arrive at the final having conceded just once in seven matches — Unai Simón's 560 minutes without conceding broke the World Cup record — and unbeaten in 37 games overall, with Lamine Yamal, a returning Nico Williams and tournament top scorer Mikel Oyarzabal giving them a fresher, more complete attack than at any earlier round. The deciding factor is fatigue: Argentina have needed extra time in three of five knockout ties (Cape Verde, Switzerland, England) and Scaloni has ridden the same core throughout, with Cristian Romero playing through cramps and Leandro Paredes withdrawn early in the semi-final — wear that shows against a Spain side that has rotated more freely. The obvious counterweight is Messi, in a record sixth World Cup and level with Mbappé on eight tournament goals, who has repeatedly conjured a way past both fatigue and a two-goal deficit (the Egypt comeback), and Argentina's 19-7 goal difference shows they do not need to dominate to score. Only Yeremy Pino is missing from Spain's squad, their healthiest of the knockout rounds, and that fully available spine plus the tournament's meanest defence give them the edge in a final that is closer on paper than the recent form table suggests.