Portugal vs Croatia — Prediction

Two second-placed European sides meet in a genuinely tight last-32 tie, and the deciding factor is balance: Portugal conceded just once across the group while a leaky Croatia shipped five, four of them to England. Roberto Martínez's side carry the deeper, more talented squad — a PSG-flavoured midfield of Vitinha and João Neves feeding Bruno Fernandes, with Leão and the 41-year-old Ronaldo ahead — but their attack stalled to a 1-1 with DR Congo and a 0-0 against Colombia, so goals are far from assured against an organised block. The key battle is in central midfield, where Modrić, 40 but still dictating tempo, and Kovačić will try to slow the game into the low-event night Croatia thrive in. That, plus Croatia's deep-run pedigree as 2018 finalists and 2022 bronze medallists and their shootout nerve, is the clear risk: if Portugal's finishing misfires again this is level after 90 and extra time or penalties are firmly live. A narrow Portugal win built on the superior defence is the lean, not a confident call.