France vs Spain — Prediction

The tournament's two form sides meet on Bastille Day, and the deciding factor is which elite defence cracks first: France have won all six, scoring 16 and keeping a clean sheet in every knockout round — 3-0 Sweden, 1-0 Paraguay, 2-0 Morocco — while Spain arrive unbeaten in 36 internationals, the longest run in their history, having conceded a single goal all tournament, De Ketelaere's in the quarter-final, which ended a record clean-sheet streak. Opta makes France 42.1% to win inside 90 to Spain's 31.8%, with 26.1% for extra time, and the lean is ours too: France's transition threat — Mbappé on eight goals and three assists, Dembélé on five goals, Olise on five assists — running at a high Spanish line is the most dangerous route to goal on the pitch. The upset path is anything but hypothetical: Spain have beaten France in both of their last two knockout meetings, the Euro 2024 semi-final and a 5-4 Nations League tie, Rodri and Pedri can starve Les Bleus of the ball, and Mikel Merino has come off the bench to settle each of Spain's last two ties late. Caveats keep this a lean rather than a strong call — Mbappé is managing a minor ankle sprain, Koné and Tchouaméni carry knocks, and the AT&T Stadium roof removes the Texas heat that might have stretched a possession side. France to edge a tight, low-scoring semi-final by a single goal, with a level 90 heading to extra time firmly in range.