Colombia vs Ghana — Prediction
Calibrated from squad strength, form, rest and venue. Higher means the model has seen this pattern resolve consistently — never a certainty.
The analysis
Colombia topped Group K unbeaten and conceded just once in three matches, and the deciding factor is that defensive solidity allied to a clear edge in attacking quality. Luis Díaz arrives off a sensational season at Bayern Munich, and with captain James Rodríguez orchestrating and Daniel Muñoz overlapping, Colombia carry a cutting edge a Ghana side missing the injured Mohammed Kudus cannot replicate — the Black Stars scored just twice in the group and now lean heavily on Antoine Semenyo's direct running and Thomas Partey's midfield control. The risk that keeps this a clear-favourite call rather than a comfortable one is real: Ghana are well-drilled, shut England out in a 0-0, and the July heat at Arrowhead can flatten a possession side into the kind of low-event night where a single set piece or counter decides everything. Colombia's balance should let them control territory and win a tight one, but a stubborn Ghana dragging this to a draw and penalties is genuinely live. A measured Colombian win, most likely by a single clear goal or two.
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